Investment Commentary

Biweekly Investment Bulletins

  • Deal or no deal?

    Investors became increasingly preoccupied by the possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit during July as the UK’s Parliament broke up for the summer recess. Although Chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier described the UK’s Brexit White Paper as a “real step forward”, he refused to accede to the proposa...

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  • Great Expectations – Recent Stock Market Turmoil

    My comments are intended to provide a sense of perspective on recent stock market events.  I believe that they key factor driving markets at the moment is expectations of interest rate movements. The simple rule is that there is a hierarchy of risk and returns: If banks are paying low in...

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  • Capitalism, Politics and Horror Movies

    As stock markets continue their march beyond all-time highs the usual concerns start to emerge: Are stock markets over-valued? After the boom surely there will be a bust? What about Trump/Brexit/North Korea/China… etc? For those who are waiting to invest the prospect...

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Monthly Market Commentary

  • SEPTEMBER - Market Commentary

    Introduction August used to be known as the ‘silly season’. Everyone who made the news was away on holiday, nothing happened and newspapers were desperate to fill their pages. So rather more obscure stories made it into print… That, of course, was before Donald Trump. And Brexit. And Venezuela...

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  • AUGUST - Market Commentary

    Introduction The news in July really could not have been much worse. The threat of a trade war between the US and China simmered throughout the month, and then on 31st July President Trump ramped up the tension with proposals of a 25% tariff on $200bn (£152bn) of Chinese imports. China has alr...

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  • JULY - Market Commentary

    Introduction Let us invite you to travel back in time to June 2016, to the day after the Brexit referendum. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, campaigning in the US Presidential election is in full swing. You are offered two glimpses into the future. The first is that two years on, the UK has appar...

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Market Updates

Market Map

Emerging Markets

  • No winners in a global trade war

    During July, President Donald Trump imposed US$34 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to respond with US$34 billion of levies on US imports. The US announced plans to implement a further US$200 billion-worth of tariffs in September. China’s monthly trade surplus with the US climbed...

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Bond Markets

  • Trade fears stoke bond yields

    Global bond yields generally rose during July as escalating trade tensions undermined investors’ confidence. Nevertheless, despite concerns over the possible impact of the deepening trade wars, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jay Powell remains optimistic towards the economic prospects of the US. ...

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