Investment Commentary

Biweekly Investment Bulletins

2018: worst year since 2008 for equity markets

2018 proved to be the worst year for global markets since 2008. The MSCI World Index fell by 10.4% over the year as a whole, dragged down by widespread economic and political concerns. Markets seesawed during December as investors reacted to newsflow over Brexit, trade tensions, and the prospect...

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Deal or no deal … or no Brexit at all?

Months of Brexit speculation and uncertainty came to a head in November as the UK and the EU finally succeeded in reaching a Brexit deal. MPs will vote on the deal on 11 December, but there are doubts whether it will receive enough votes. The EU has stated that it will not contemplate a renegotiation...

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Wobbly times

Stock markets have started to wobble. A sell-off in Asia has spread across the globe. Having been talked about for months, is the sell-off finally here? The catalysts for the sell off include higher rates, US protectionism and a bull market that’s long in the tooth It is difficult to see a...

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Monthly Market Commentary

May Market Commentary

First the good news. None of the leading world stock markets on which we report in this Bulletin fell in April. With just one exception – China – all the markets made gains, with the German DAX index leading the way.

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April Market Commentary

We have commented before on the difficulty of ‘hitting a moving target.’ Sometimes in writing this commentary you run the risk of what you write being overtaken by events, and that has never been more true than this month. In the short time between us publishing notes and you reading them it is possible that the Brexit section will be different.

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March Market Commentary

February was another month when all the important news seemed to happen in the last week of the month. President Trump delivered the annual State of the Union address on February 6th and announced a second meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. The two duly met up in North Korea three weeks later, only for the talks to break down without agreement, as the US refused North Korea’s demands for sanctions relief.

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Market Updates

Market Map

Emerging Markets

Investors hope for trade resolution at G20

Emerging markets generally performed more strongly than the broader global equity market during November, boosted by hopes that the US and China might resolve their ongoing trade dispute at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, and by indications from the Federal Reserve that US interest rates are current...

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China accuses US of "trade bullyism"

The trade war between the US and China continued to escalate during September. Following the US’s imposition of levies on US$200 billion-worth of Chinese products, China announced fresh trade tariffs on US$60 billion-worth of US products. In a bid to restore market confidence towards Argentina, the...

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No winners in a global trade war

During July, President Donald Trump imposed US$34 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to respond with US$34 billion of levies on US imports. The US announced plans to implement a further US$200 billion-worth of tariffs in September. China’s monthly trade surplus with the US climbed...

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Bond Markets

Brexit: decision time

UK government bonds and the pound remained hostages to Brexit in November as the UK finally agreed a Brexit deal with the EU. Although the agreement was backed by the Cabinet, it is doubtful whether it will manage to clear a vote in the House of Commons on 11 December and the EU has confirmed that i...

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Brexit enters the last six months

Gilt yields rose during September as the Brexit negotiation process moved towards its final six months and a summit in Salzburg ended without a deal. The IMF concluded its annual assessment of the UK economy and warned that, although all possible Brexit outcomes are likely to incur costs for the UK...

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Trade fears stoke bond yields

Global bond yields generally rose during July as escalating trade tensions undermined investors’ confidence. Nevertheless, despite concerns over the possible impact of the deepening trade wars, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jay Powell remains optimistic towards the economic prospects of the US...

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